@T: ALWAYS THE TWAIN

Morgan Stanley is the bank where the veteran Internet analyst, Mary Meeker, is in residence and communicates her insights on tech stocks and their performance.

The team has garnered a good reputation for calling it right over the years and I read a fair amount of Meeker’s reports from conferences on the developments and future of the Internet too. Nonetheless, her team’s not always spot on — as this competitive spat over GOOG stock valuations in 2007 with Henry Blodget, formerly the Internet analyst at Merrill Lynch (an RIP bank, acquired by Bank of America in Q4 2008) and now CEO, co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of Silicon Alley Insider, shows:

· http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/24/henry-blodget-blasts-mary-meekers-google-goog-math/

· http://www.businessinsider.com/alleyinsider

Today’s FT informs us that Morgan Stanley has a new star Internet analyst: a 15 year-old intern called Matthew Robson. Apparently, his research note on social media says in no uncertain terms that, “Twitter is not for teenagers!” and CEOs and senior people are all abuzz about the report:

* http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/035e83fe-6f18-11de-9109-00144feabdc0.html

* http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jul/13/twitter-teenage-media-habits

* http://voices.allthingsd.com/20090713/note-by-teenage-scribbler-causes-sensation/

How Teenagers Consume Media

Now — whilst this is all fantastic for young Matthew Robson — Morgan Stanley and the various CEOs and media moguls who attended Sun Valley 2009 as well as institutional fund managers need to ask themselves, “How’s it possible our 30/40-something analysts’ eyes are off the radar?! What are we paying them for?! This is the type of blind-sidedness and incompetence that ends up contributing to global financial crisis which then affect economies and employment!”

Sorry, but anyone worth their salt as an analyst — even a novice one, fresh out of Harvard / Oxbridge / INSEAD / any other Ivy League business school — would have picked up on “Twitter is not for teenagers” and the non-40something Twitterati OVER THREE MONTHS AGO! Notably, if the analysts had any sense of humor and were actually ON THE BALL they’d have seen the twitter topix link syndicated on the brilliant Kosmix (http://www.kosmix.com) and gone to the Current TV site:

* http://current.com/items/89891774_twouble-with-twitters.htm

Here are the links to the YouTube videos too for good measure:

· www.youtube.com/watch?v=PN2HAroA12w

· www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHAZt-Exuaw

[I can't embed the videos because of country restrictions. It's not available on YouTube UK site.]

Please note what the Current TV/Supernews comedy anarchists are saying: the young guy in the cartoon doesn’t get the hype about Twitter and is making a mockery out of the 40-something Twitterer. That’s a pretty good insight on whether it has teen appeal too.

Teens aren’t into tech hyped up by middle-aged celebrities or SEO spammers. They like to be the ones discovering it, populating it with their identity markers as their own identities take shape, breaking new grounds with it and they want to know that if they shell out monies to update their tweets via their mobile phone credits………..Robert Pattison (he of Twilight and a million schoolgirl daydreams), the Harry Potter kid stars and the Jonas Brothers / Miley Cyrus / the Obama girls or the coolest boy / girl in school they fancy are going to become their avid followers.

What the Morgan Stanley story about the teenage analyst shows is that senior management desperately need analysts and advisors who are on-the-ball, perspicacious and engage in a similar or like-for-like way the target market they’re writing about and trying to build business case models for do.

Moreover, this “Twitter is not for teens” is SERIOUSLY OLD NEWS to the viewers of Current TV and anyone with a genuine pulse on the socmedia sphere. The FT too will have to shape up and get more………current and informed.

LOL.

[Yes, I was the first person to flag the Current TV/Supernews hilarity about Twitter to my friends. No, I’m not a teenager but I can be child-like --- if not juvenile, immature or a novice --- about how I consume and explore media. Just because I have the adult tools to put socmedia players into a Porter matrix or McKinsey product life cycle graph or to calculate staggered revenue streams in a balance sheet doesn't mean I've lost my abilities to play with and test out digital media with the wonder (and mischief) of a child.

Hey and the YouTube videos aren’t even relayed in my country because of copyright restrictions! Still………….if a person really needs to know……….they can find anything in the socmedia sphere.]

LOOOOOOOOOOL.

Humor and wit can help our insights on business models in the most surprising ways!

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UPDATE

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I made my post early this morning, as soon as I read the original FT.com article and MS’ prognosis on twitter and other soc media for GenY (http://media.ft.com/cms/c3852b2e-6f9a-11de-bfc5-00144feabdc0.pdf).

How Teenagers Consume Media

During the course of the day, it seems to have captured the attentions of the blogosphere (ReadWriteWeb, HuffPost, Silicon Alley Insider, Crunchgear, etc.):

*http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/teens_not_into_twitter_tv_radio_newspapers.php

* http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/13/matthew-robson-15yearold-_n_230495.html

* http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-15-year-old-analyst-trashes-tv-newspapers-radio-andtwitter-2009-7

* http://www.crunchgear.com/2009/07/13/morgan-stanley-reports-shows-that-teens-dont-use-twitter-dont-buy-music-but-still-go-to-the-movies/

There’ve been hundreds of comments on the blogs. Notably, so many hours after my blog post……still NO ONE has referred to the Current TV/Supernews spoof.

I think I’m going to have to remind everyone of its comedic genius.

Clearly, the comedians are ahead of the curve compared with the analysts.

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UPDATE II

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Ah, yes, and real-life young intern Matthew Robson puts his age at “15 and 7 months” in the Morgan Stanley note. This is LOL because the fictitious character, Adrian Mole, was 13 and 3/4 when he shared his teenage insights with us:

*  http://www.adrianmole.com/

Of course, the teenage Adrian’s singular musings were the creations of the mid-30′s FEMALE author, Sue Townsend……….

*  http://www.contemporarywriters.com/authors/?p=authC2D9C28A18dac23605uLr31DC862

Reading through the MS research note, it’s obvious that the 30-something analysts on the MS media team have contributed their input to the teenager Robson’s insights. Former bankers can spot this from a continent away.

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UPDATE NUMERO TRE

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I am ROTFLOL!!!

In tomorrow’s Times newspaper, there’s an interview with Matthew Robson and his mother in which they explain how he got his internship. She was walking the family dog in Greenwich Park and bumped into another dog-walker by accident. He happened to be Patrick Wellington, a senior financial analyst at MS. The Robson family dog is a whippet (as in smart / quick as) and it’s called….RUDOLPH, so someone’s obviously Santa Claus and everyone’s Christmases have come at once!

Matthew Robson gets his internship. Morgan Stanley gets buzz about a research note. Sun Valley media moguls get an insight into the teen market they themselves are (some of them with the exception of Zuckerberg) over three decades too old to qualify for membership in. Twitter gets information on which audience to focus their efforts (no strategic rationale to migrate towards tweens because the marketing efforts won’t work on them).

Synchronicity? Serendipity? The Super Being of SocMedia moving in mysterious ways?

LOOOOOOOOL, I love this story!

Oh and how does the Times entitle its article?

“TWITTER IS FOR OLD PEOPLE, WORK EXPERIENCE WHIZ-KID TELLS BANKERS” !!!!!!!!!!!!

* http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6703399.ece?Submitted=true

Ha! Now am I glad I never took to Twitter!

OLD people, indeed!!! LOOOOOOOOL! There go the hopes of the socmedia’s “I’m young and cool” hipponistas! LOOOOOOOOL!!!

Yesterday something happened on the Global Sense-Making site that made me think again about senses of humor and whether we share or don’t share it with others and how this affects our insights, innovation, progress and plain old enjoyment of the Web. Then I thought wider about the social implications for the Global Brain.

Firstly, my own sense of humor encompasses this type of material (in no particular order):

(i.) Bringing Up Baby — directed by Howard Hawks and starring Cary Grant and Katherine Hepburn

(ii.) Life of Brian — ‘Always Look on the Bright Side of Life’ by the Monty Python crew

* http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo

(iii.) Subprime crisis — John Bird & John Fortune on the Bremner, Bird & Fortune show, Channel 4

(iv) City Lights — Charlie Chaplin

* http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=zskO9O3hF78

(v.) Duck Soup — the Marx Brothers

(vi.) The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

·      http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml

(vii.) Cyrano de Bergerac — the Nose scene, starring Gerard Depardieu

(viii.) Pick a Star — the Harmonica Scene, Laurel + Hardy

·      http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=2FS8DBqiQWQ

(ix.) Mr Vampire — Chinese comedy horror movie starring Sammo Ho

·      http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=GStgl36V6ck

(x.) Chinese spoofs of Western pop songs — Smooth Criminal by Michael Jackson

There’s lots more; above are just some examples.

LULU LOLS A LOT!

I have a particular fondness for naturally smart comedy (especially mistaken identity / fish out of water / idiot savant) rather than the gross out or Punk’d type, and it can be in any language or from any culture. The LOLs and funny bones are exercised regardless of those.

One of my good friends calls me “crazy little Chinese chica” because when she calls I tend to take something straightforward she told me previously, mash it up with something I’ve observed about life’s tragic-ironies and then make her laugh with what is off-the-wall tangential yet connected humor that she gets and likes.

WHITHER THE WIT?

However, I appreciate that humor doesn’t necessarily translate — particularly if the other person:

(a.)          has a humor by-pass.

(b.)         doesn’t like you, full-stop.

(c.)         doesn’t share the same linguistic or experiential reference points.

(d.)         is not privy to your group’s history of “in-jokes”.

(e.)         is simply a t-r-o-l-l. [Shhh! Don’t say the word aloud or they show up --- LOL.]

LOST IN TRANSLATION

I remember once being in a cinema watching Infernal Affairs — which was subsequently remade into The Departed by Martin Scorcese, btw — and there is a really witty romantic scene in the psychiatrist’s office which was the culmination of the flirtation between the two leads and………..NO ONE laughed in the cinema except me.

Yup, I released my LOLs regardless into the darkness.

Why? Well, my mother tongue’s Cantonese, which is what the film was made in. I read the subtitles they provided for Westerners and there was definitely “lost in translation” at work, so by the time the comedy climax came…………..only I, the native speaker, picked up on the laughter cues all along the way. It’s subtle. It’s nuanced. It’s there.

We’re CONSCIOUS of it.

HUMOR AS A GLOBAL BRAIN SYNAPSE

So what does this have to do with the Global Brain?

Well, it seems no one’s really given humor much thought yet much less application. Technologists are still focusing on the issue of spirituality and conscious self-awareness of AI. In fact with a simple search on Google with the terms “global brain humor” there hardly elicits many entries! I counted less than a dozen relevant ones.

Following is a rare link which does includes some glimpses and I’m blogging about it because it’s also a great read on David Bohm’s theories of quantum mechanics — which is what the SemWeb and the Singularity brigade and the science fiction futurologists are all trying to simulate.

http://www.commongroundcommonsense.org/forums/lofiversion/index.php/t51235.html

The article says:

“You have many special mental faculties: humor, spirituality, eroticism, music, mathematics, aesthetics, nurturing, gossip and narration.”

My impression of the SemWeb and Global Brain movement to date is that they’re still adopting and refining the mathematical approach to semantic social graphs. They may say and spin they no longer use the statistical approach, to try and delineate their rankings algorithm from that of Google’s, but I’ll bet you a can of Coke the algorithm is still driven by mathematical concepts rather than humor, nurturing or narration.

To my mind, these are the key constituents of sense-making rather than the mathematical ones.

We do calculate the risks and probabilities involved when we make decisions but invariably if the narration, the nurturing (or positioning) and the humor is good this over-rides whatever mathematics we generate in our mind because we reason that, “Who knows? So the likelihood of failure is 60%. So I’m paying a premium of 10% over cost. So I can’t really afford it……..but I’m going to enjoy and have fun with it while it lasts!”

It’s the ego and the will acting in conjunction to opt for personal happiness, even momentary, in place of rational responsibility. Sometimes, it can save us from ourselves and the rigidity of society.

By no means am I saying that the mathematical element should be completely abstracted from the building of the Global Brain. I’m simply stating that the other N-dimensions also have to be taken into account. At the moment, thinking about the Global Brain is somewhat linear, uni-dimensional and disconnected from how our brains really work: the AI and neural nets branch of mathematics is being deployed to proxy consciousness, there’s taxonomies and semantics but no smart wit.

Humor is a major synapse that’s currently missing in the formulations of how to build the Global Brain. Humor actually plays its role in our ability to reflect upon the information we’re intaking from external sources and also internally how we perceive and deal with the folly of our own absurdities and idiosyncrasies as well as those of others.

This is another aspect which highlights how important perception is. What one party regards as “genius wit” is seen by another as “juvenile silliness”.

We should factor this into the Global Brain postulations, imo.

HUMOR AS A METAPHYSICAL CONSTITUENT

Dr Branko Bokun, a graduate of the Sorbonne’s sociology department, argues in his book, Humour Therapy, (published by Vita Books) that the brain is also a gland, and that its glandular activity can be manipulated by thoughts or ideas created by the brain’s mental activity.

He believes that humour therapy helps us to realise that both unhappiness and gloom are infectious.

‘That is why the pursuit of personal happiness only acquires a realistic meaning if it becomes the pursuit of other people’s happiness.’

Bokun proposes humor courses, to help restore our inborn disposition towards playfulness, joy of living, curiosity, exploration and flexibility. His suggestions include:

(i)            Develop a sense of self-ridicule, for instance by talking to oneself in the mirror;



(ii)          See amusing and happy films and plays, and read humorous books and magazines;




(iii)         Dedicate a corner of one’s home to toys, as the mere sight and feel of them lessen tension. Hang pictures of children and animals on the walls rather than staid or gloomy ancestors;




(iv)         Find a hobby, but change it the moment it is taken over-seriously. Preferably choose a hobby that cannot go against nature’s harmonies, such as sailing or gardening;



(v)          Have a pet and talk to it;




(vi)         See life through a haze of analogies to memorised jokes and anecdotes;



(vii)       Repeat three times every morning ‘I am not the centre of the universe’;

 and

(viii)      Remember the eleventh commandment ‘thou shalt not take thyself too seriously.’

These seem to be reasonable suggestions — although, if you get caught talking to yourself in the mirror…………someone may wrongly assume you’re being narcissistic rather than exercising your humor! LOL.

I like point (vi), though. Life is richer and funnier if you can quote analogies from a wide variety of sources spanning Shakespeare to ‘The Simpsons’ to Jackie Chan — yes, seriously; he’s a naturally hoots guy in Chinese and in English!

CONCLUSION: LOL LEADS TO ENLIGHTENMENT

I close this blog post with a quotation:

If we couldn’t laugh, we would all go insane. — Jimmy Buffett

Jon Stewart + Stephen Colbert (The Daily Show) in Rolling Stone

So….the Global Brain has the opportunity to LOL and make sense or……..go mad / cuckoo, short-circuit because it has no GSOH (or release values) and have a nervous breakdown.

LOOOOOOOOOL!